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Unconventional supply could boost energy self-sufficiency in the Western Hemisphere by 2030.
Between now and 2030, global energy will remain dominated by fossil fuels, which are forecast to account for 81% of global energy demand by 2030, which would be down about 6% from current levels, BP forecast in its latest Energy Outlook 2030, which was published Jan. 18.
The period should also see increased fuel-switching with more gas and renewables use at the expense of coal and oil.
Global energy demand will continue to grow over the period although at a slowing annual rate. The growth will be fuelled by economic and population growth in non-OECD countries.
Demand is likely to grow by 39% by 2030, or 1.6% annually, almost entirely in non-OECD countries with consumption in OECD countries expected to rise by just 4% in total over the period.
Increased energy efficiency and strong growth for renewable energy are also forecast.
Renewables, including biofuels, continue to be the fastest growing sources of energy globally, rising at an annual clip of more than 8%, much quicker even than natural gas, which is the fastest-growing fossil fuel at about 2% a year over the period to 2030, noted BP.
In BP’s view, the Western Hemisphere could be almost totally energy self-sufficient by 2030. This forecast is based on the growth of unconventional supply, including U.S. shale oil and gas, Canadian oil sands, and Brazilian deepwaters, and a gradual decline in oil demand.
Under this scenario, the Middle East will be the major supplier of the rest of the world. Asia, in particular, will depend increasingly on the Middle East for its growing oil needs.
However, the Middle East OPEC countries face domestic demands problems as well. While expected to be able to meet world demand, the region must be able to supply domestic markets as the region’s energy use per capita is expected to remain more than three times as high as the rest of the non-OECD world.
BP pointed out that the longstanding efforts to displace oil with gas and to improve the efficiency of energy use within the region will continue to progress.
Production of NGLs and condensate from Saudi Arabia, Iraq and other regional suppliers will dominate liquids growth as the region’s share of global oil supply rises to 34% by 2030.
Energy importers in 2030 will need 40% more energy than is currently being imported. Unconventional oil and gas and supply growth from biofuels will allow North America to reduce dependence on foreign supplies with impressive results. North America could even have a small surplus in 2030.
On the other hand, Europe will be looking to meet its 67% higher deficit of natural gas with LNG and pipeline imports. The former Soviet Union will be the primary supplier of pipeline gas.
China’s energy deficit across all fuels will be five times greater than it is today. India’s energy deficit, mainly for oil and coal, will more than double in the same period.
Even though oil will continue to lose market share, demand for hydrocarbon liquids will still reach 103 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2030, up by 18% from 2010. The world will need to bring an additional 16 million b/d onstream by 2030 and replace declining output from existing sources.
Coal, somewhat surprisingly, is expected to continue gaining market share through 2020 before starting to wane in the 2020-30 decade.
One of the biggest drivers of energy demand will continue to be power generation, which is forecast to be the fastest growing user of energy in the period. More than half the total growth in primary energy use will be in power generation.
The fuel mix in the power sector will undergo the biggest changes with renewables, nuclear and hydro-electric accounting for more 50% of the growth.
Presenting the 2030 Energy Outlook, BP chief executive Bob Dudley said, “This report helps us to be both realistic and optimistic. It shows there are things we can’t change -- like the underlying drivers of energy demand -- and things we can change -- like the way we satisfy that demand.
“The main message is that we need to have an open, competitive energy sector, which encourages innovation and thereby maximizes efficiency in order to enjoy energy that is sufficient, secure and sustainable into the future,” he added.
BP’s work on the Energy Outlook 2030 is a supplement to BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy. The next issue of the statistical review will be published in June 2012.