Kosmos Energy Ltd. (NYSE: KOS) and partner BP Plc (NYSE: BP) are building on a string of successes offshore West Africa, laying the foundation for another LNG hub, with the team’s latest exploration well hitting pay.
Drilled to a depth of nearly 4,700 m (15,420 ft) in the Cayar Offshore Profond Block offshore Senegal, Yakaar-1 hit a 120-m (394-ft) gross hydrocarbon column in three pools within the Lower Cenomanian and encountered 45 m (148 ft) of net pay, Kosmos said May 8, adding the results “confirm the presence of thick, stacked, reservoir sands over a very large area with very good porosity and permeability.”
The discovery, which was drilled by the Atwood Achiever drillship, is located west of the Teranga discovery and south of Tortue, which is estimated to hold 15 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas. Kosmos believes Yakaar-1, formerly known as Teranga West, discovered just as much.
The find further de-risks one of the oil and gas industry’s most appealing frontier basins. Northern Senegal’s inboard Senegal River fairway and southern Mauritania have attracted and maintained companies’ attention in today’s lower, but improving, commodity price environment, as the region’s leaders focus on the outboard with Yakaar-1 leading the way. It is the first well of four tests planned by Kosmos and BP of the basin floor fan fairways, outboard of the trend opened by the Tortue-1 discovery.
Analysts reacted positively to the news.
“We expect interest in the company’s ongoing drilling campaign to pick up materially. Kosmos is our favorite 2017 exploration play,” RBC Capital Markets said.
Plans are for the Atwood Achiever to move to the Tortue-1 well after finishing operations at Yakaar-1. Here, a drillstem test will be carried out, which Kosmos said will enable FEED work to begin in second-half 2017. A final investment decision is expected in 2018 with first gas in 2021.
“Together with the Teranga-1 discovery made last year, we believe this resource will support a second cost-competitive LNG hub,” Kosmos CEO Andrew Inglis said. “The result also confirms our view of the potential scale of the petroleum system offshore Mauritania and Senegal, in particular the basin floor fan systems which have now been further de-risked, with the well demonstrating that reservoir and trap both work in these previously untested fairways.”
With a 100% success rate in the basin, Barclays analysts pointed out that Kosmos has encountered 25 and 50 Tcf of discovered and de-risked potential gas resources. However, “substantial risks remain as there is stiff competition from other large gas discoveries in Egypt, Mozambique and Tanzania,” Barclays said. “KOS is seeking to tilt the balance in its favor as it plans to drill three additional exploration wells over the next 12 months offshore Senegal and Mauritania—and is optimistic that it may find liquids.”
“KOS previously indicated that if felt it had a strong chance of finding oil or liquid-rich gas on the outboard basin floor fan fairways,” Barclays added. “Preliminary analysis suggests a condensate to gas ratio (CGR) of 15-30 barrels per MMcf of gas.”
RBC, which put Kosmos’ net asset value at $9.29 per share, said the addition of liquids to its 15 Tcf dry gas prospect could add $1 per share of risked upside.
“In addition to the inherent value of the liquids, BP also pays a contingent royalty on gross production,” RBC said.
BP invested nearly $1 billion when it entered Mauritania and Senegal in December 2016 and agreed to acquire a 62% interest in, and operatorship of, Kosmos’ exploration blocks C-6, C-8, C-12 and C-13 in Mauritania and a 32.49% interest in Kosmos’ Saint-Louis Profond and Cayar Profond blocks in Senegal. The deal involved 33,000 sq km (12,741 sq miles) of acreage, including the Tortue Field.
For BP, the Yakaar-1 discovery confirmed offshore Senegal and Mauritania as a “world-class hydrocarbon basin,” Bernard Looney, upstream CEO for BP, said in a statement. “This discovery marks an important further step in building BP’s new business in Mauritania and Senegal. We look forward to results from the additional exploration wells planned for 2017.”
Kosmos appears confident going forward, saying its consecutive successes confirm its “geologic model and geophysical tools are well calibrated.”
Velda Addison can be reached at vaddison@hartenergy.com and @VeldaAddison.
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