Lower oil prices, rising operational costs and environmental concerns have not halted Canadian oil sands production growth, which is forecast to add 800,000 barrels per day by 2020.

That’s according to a report released by IHS Inc. The consultancy said oil sands growth, which jumped 1.2 million barrels per day (MMbbl/d) between 2005 and 2014, would have rose even higher had it not been for falling oil prices.

Still, the slower growth is a positive given today’s environment filled with stalled projects, cutbacks and layoffs as supply outweighs demand, causing some producers to reign in production efforts.

Canada—fueled by strong oil sands production—remains a bright spot in the sector. Trailing only Saudi Arabia, Canada produces more oil than every other member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Plus, Canada remains the top supplier of foreign oil to the U.S., faring better than others such as Nigeria and Colombia, which have lost U.S. business amid the shale revolution.

“Certainly growth would have been greater had prices remained high, but there is sufficient inertia in the system from projects already underway to carry growth to nearly 2020,” Kevin Birn, director for IHS Energy, said in a news release about the report. “Those projects where significant capital has been invested will continue to operate and proceed to completion.”

Imperial Oil and ExxonMobil started up the jointly owned Kearl oil sands expansion project in June. The project, which sought to reduce emissions and water withdrawals from the Athabasca River, will add up to 110,000 bbl/d of production, doubling the facility’s total output to 220,000bbl/d, according to Imperial.

“Using Imperial’s proprietary paraffinic froth treatment process, we eliminated the need for an onsite upgrader, significantly reducing greenhouse-gas emissions,” said Imperial CEO Rich Kruger. “Specifically, on a well-to-wheels basis, Kearl diluted bitumen has about the same greenhouse-gas emissions footprint as the average crude refined today in the United States.”

Electrical cogeneration technology also helped lower energy consumption, while on-site water storage eliminated Athabasca River withdrawals during low-flow periods, he added.

Hopes are for the Imperial-operated Kearl to recover more than 4.6 billion barrels (Bbbl) of bitumen over its projected 40-year life.

Suncor Energy is also pushing forward with the $13 billion Fort Hills oil sands project with partners Total E&P Canada and Teck Resources. First oil is expected by fourth-quarter 2017, with production ramping up to 90% of its 180,000-bbl/d production capacity within a year.

This comes despite Suncor having reported a $341 million loss in first-quarter 2015. Second-quarter results are scheduled to be released later this month.

Like others, the company is focusing on driving down costs while growing production profitably. Suncor dropped its cash operating costs by more than 20% quarter over quarter, CEO Steve Williams said during the company’s first-quarter 2015 conference call in April.

“To be honest, I’m not overly concerned with crude prices, at least not short-term spot prices,” Williams said. “Suncor has no impact on global pricing and I’d rather concentrate my efforts on the things that we can control. We’re focused on continually improving the reliability of our operations, taking unnecessary cost out of the business, and profitably growing our production.”

Highlights for the quarter included quarterly records for total and upgraded production at the Firebag in-situ plant, which he said had year-over-year growth of 13% and 11%, respectively.

However, market conditions have halted other projects. Statoil announced in September the postponement of the Corner field development for at least three years. Teck Resources is also postponing its planned multibillion-dollar Frontier oil sands project by five years. First oil is now set for 2026, Reuters reported July 10.

Despite the slow growth and delays, IHS looked to Canada’s history of oil sands growth—even when faced with headwinds.

“Among the attributes supporting continued oil sands growth are the enormous scale of the resource. Oil sands are the third-largest source of proven reserves in the world and the only reserves of this scale outside OPEC—and its location in a stable jurisdiction,” IHS said. “Openness to private capital and proximity to the world’s largest economy (United States) are also factors that support future growth.”

At about 167 Bbbl, oil sands account for nearly all of Canada’s proved oil reserves, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Velda Addison can be reached at vaddison@hartenergy.com or via Twitter @veldaaddison.