Global energy demand is expected to rise 25% by 2040 as natural gas, nuclear and renewable energy gain ground, according to ExxonMobil’s (NYSE: XOM) latest energy outlook.

“All of the world’s energy sources will be needed to meet rising demand to 2040, but there will be a marked shift toward cleaner fuels, particularly natural gas,” the company said in its energy outlook released Jan. 25. However, “oil will remain the world’s top energy source, essential for transportation and chemical production.”

The world consumed about 550 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) of energy in 2014—the equivalent of using the energy in about 12 billion gallons of gasoline daily, the outlook said, noting the demand could rise by 25% through 2040. Altogether, oil, natural gas and coal are expected to meet almost 80% of the world’s energy needs. But chances are likely that the threats posed by climate change will push consumers toward lower emission energy sources.

Nuclear, renewables: ExxonMobil expects demand for nuclear energy to more than double between 2014 and 2040, led by growth in China where the government is aiming to cut its greenhouse gas emissions per unit of gross domestic product by 60% to 65% from 2005 levels while increasing the share of non-fossil fuels in its energy mix.

Worldwide, the use of wind, solar and biofuels—called modern renewable fuels—are also poised for growth and could more than triple 2014 volumes. The outlook predicts the largest growth will come from wind, which could supply about 2% of the world’s energy needs and about 10% of its electricity. Combined, renewables and nuclear could make up about 40% of the growth in energy demand by 2040, the outlook showed.

Natural gas: Expected to rise faster than most other fuels is natural gas, global demand for which could rise by 50% between 2014 and 2040, mainly because of its versatility and its lower carbon content. The outlook showed natural gas demand will rise in all parts of the world, meeting 40% of the global energy demand. While production growth may be seen worldwide, North America is expected to see the greatest growth with output projected to increase by 65% thanks to prolific unconventional gas assets.

The outlook said unconventional supplies are expected to account for about 90% of gas production in North America. The future could also hold rising unconventional supplies in the Asia-Pacific region, which could account for 20% of the projected unconventional production growth, the outlook said. “However, we expect conventionally-produced natural gas to remain the cornerstone of supply, meeting two-thirds of global demand in 2040,” with the Middle East, Russia/Caspian and Africa—which could see its conventional gas output more than double—at the forefront. LNG is expected to play a big role in meeting the world’s global gas demand.

Liquids, oil: Global demand for liquids is expected to grow by 20%, with ExxonMobil predicting that liquids output worldwide will rise from about 93 million barrels a day (MMbbl/d) in 2014 to about 112 MMbbl/d in 2040. “While conventional oil deposits continue to account for the majority of the world’s production, we expect most of the growth through 2040 to come from technology-driven supplies including tight oil, NGL, oil sands and deepwater production,” according to the outlook. “These supplies are projected to represent 40% of global liquid production by 2040, up from 25% in 2014.”

Although some companies have temporarily cut back on exploration spending among other areas as the current downturn lingers today, exploration is expected to ramp up and lead to discoveries. The outlook states that new crude and condensate development could make up nearly 30% of the world’s global liquid production by 2040. Although ExxonMobil expects most of the growth will come from non-conventional supply, conventional oil is still expected to hold the biggest share of the pie although its slice could drop to a 55% share.

“Together, we see China and India accounting for almost half the projected growth in global energy demand to 2040,” according to the outlook.

But a group of 10 nations are expected to account for about 30% of the projected energy demand growth through 2040. These, as stated in the outlook, are Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Thailand and Indonesia. About 24 years from now, the world’s population is expected to have grown by about 2 billion people. Surpassing China, India could be the most populous; combined, the two countries could represent almost half of the world’s energy demand growth.

“To keep pace with demand, the world will need to pursue all economic energy sources,” ExxonMobil said.

Velda Addison can be reached at vaddison@hartenergy.com.