Research by Energy Maritime Associates (EMA) has revealed that in the floater market in Q2 2015, three new units were awarded, nine were delivered and four were decommissioned.

The team analysed the latest market activity for all types of floating production systems: fpso, flng, fsru, tlp, spar, semi, fso and mopu.

During the period one production semi and two fsrus, worth over $2bn, were awarded.

Some nine units, including two fpsos, one fsru, one spar, four fsos and two mopus were delivered.

At the same time, two fsos were scrapped and two small fpsos for well testing became available.

Petrobras was at the forefront of activity, releasing its long-awaited 2015-19 business plan, which drastically reassessed its future production, the number of new production units required, as well as the schedule for units currently on order.

The latest plan revised the number of new fpus down from 14 to five. These will be leased units to be awarded in 2016-2017 for delivery in 2019-2020.

Some 17 fpsos are currently on order for Petrobras: 12 owned and five leased. The leased units, which are being provided by Modec, SBM and Teekay are currently on schedule.

The owned units, which were to be built by Brazilian contractors, have encountered further delays and some work has been re-contracted to Chinese yards. Delivery of these units is now scheduled for 2017-2020+.

EMA said the slowdown is expected to continue through 2015. After four awards in Q1 and three awards in Q2, little contracting activity is anticipated in Q3, as oil companies continue to reduce spending.

It is possible that some new awards could be placed before year end, with more likely in 2016 after annual budgets are reset, the analyst said.

EMA’s managing director David Boggs said, ‘As anticipated, there were few awards in the first half of 2015. The second half of the year is expected to be worse, as project sanctions continue to be delayed due to cost pressures.

‘However, developments continue to move through the planning pipeline and companies are waiting for the right time to lock-in attractive pricing. We believe more projects will achieve FID toward the end of 2015 and into 2016.’

Meanwhile, analyst Douglas Westwood predicts that despite a current pause in commitments to new projects, the capex for flng vessels is expected to amount to $35.5bn over 2015-2021. Spending on fsrus will total $22.8bn over the same period, taking the combined expenditure for the flng market to $58.3bn.

And consultants for Quest Offshore said flng demand appears to be a silver lining in the offshore fabrication market.

The Houston-area strategic advisory and consulting firm forecasts a decline in overall tonnage through 2016 for Korean yards, essentially being cut in half from highs around 740,000t in 2014. An uptick is anticipated in 2017-2019, according to the firm.

But the flng market could change the outlook for the better, although Quest still thinks the fpso sector will remain the backbone of demand globally, said Caitlin Tarver, senior director of Quest Offshore’s market research and data division.

Quest called the outlook for nine flng orders through 2019 ‘positive’ despite the figure being 25% lower than the previous forecast due to today’s market conditions.

Offshore