The global offshore rig fleet continues its delicate dance along the 80% utilization threshold as 2011 winds to conclusion. That 80% utilization marker is a number worth watching since rig rates tend to increase in a rising market whenever utilization moves above 80%.

Global offshore utilization has flirted around the edges of the threshold for more than a month, though 80%-plus utilization has been a tough ring to grasp as the carrousel of an expanding global fleet bumps into the dynamic interchange of mobile offshore drilling units rolling both on and off contract like plastic ponies on a carnival merry-go-round.

The offshore utilization picture varies by region, as ODS-Petrodata’s weekly tally shows. Regions sporting a ratio of contracted rigs to total drilling fleet at 80% or higher include Europe/Mediterranean Sea (88.9% vs 81.6% one year ago), the Middle East, 84.2% vs 75.4% one year ago) and the burgeoning offshore natural gas play in Asia/Australia (82.5% vs 75.9% one year ago).

Two regions, West Africa and South America, are delicately poised on the 80% threshold versus 78% and 71% respectively one year ago.

That leaves only the Gulf of Mexico in the offshore doldrums with 58.4% utilization on a fleet of 115 rigs versus 52.5% in a Macondo-inspired bout of suspended animation one year ago.

Clearly momentum is building in the global offshore market, which sports 820 rigs in the fleet today versus 817 one month ago and 782 at this time last year.

Two events characterized the global offshore market over the last week. First, Seadrill Ltd., the Stavanger Seer has spoken once again, this time forecasting $550,000 per day rig rates for ultra-deepwater units (UDW) within the next six months. This marks the second time in 90 days that Seadrill Ltd. management has announced the impending arrival of higher rates for the fleet’s highest tech rigs. The $550,000 per day prediction would mark a 10% jump in leading edge rig rates for this class of equipment, another signal that the deepwater sector has embarked on a multi-year arc of improving business conditions as high oil prices and an abundant global prospect inventory converge to outpace capacity additions.

Seadrill previously predicted the imminent arrival of $500,000 per day rig rates in early September. Contractors blasted through that barrier within 60 days.

In fact evidence of an improving offshore market is found in Seadrill Ltd.’s third quarter earnings, which the company reported at the end of November. Operating income grew by $50 million during the quarter to $480 million led by improvements in operating income in Seadrill’s jack up division, up $22 million to $71 million, and Seadrill’s tender rig division, which saw a $20 million improvement to $60 million for the quarter. Floaters witnessed a modest $8 million rise to $349 million in operating income during the period.

Meanwhile Seadrill reported an additional $2.5 billion in new contracts during the third quarter, bringing the driller’s order backlog to $13.5 billion. Separately during the quarter, Seadrill acquired a 33.75% ownership stake in Asia Offshore Drilling Ltd, a 2010 start up which is building two jack ups in Signapore, via a private placements and increased its ownership in Archer Limited, a global oilfield service company, to 39.9% via two private placements.

Seadrill also placed $950 million in debt through two new secured credit facilities.

Meanwhile, Transocean also hit the capital markets beach at the end of November with a 26-million share equity offering at $40.50. Proceeds from the $1 billion capital raise will refinance a portion of the $1.46 billion Aker Drilling acquisition, including Aker’s two high spec harsh environment semi-submersibles and two UDW drillships under construction. Remaining proceeds will build cash ahead of a scheduled senior note refinancing in December.

Maybe the best evidence of optimism in regards to the offshore market can be found in the current newbuild cycle. Drillers have ordered 39 floaters and 45 jackups in 2011 on top of the 63 units still under construction from pre-2011, Nearly all the newbuilds are higher spec units regardless of rig class, while several are essentially replacement units since contractors have cold-stacked 69 rigs over the last three years. This churn of newer, high spec rigs for older commodity units reflects an offshore industry undergoing dramatic transformation with the urgency generated through high commodity prices and tightening supply/demand balance in the global oil market.

Offshore