Iran’s ability to successfully use gas injection to boost pressure in mature fields and quickly push forward development of newer fields will determine how quickly the country is able to ramp up output after sanctions.

That is according to a report released by Deloitte Energy Services, which estimates that Iran’s crude oil production could jump from about 2.8 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2015 to between 3 and 3.7 MMbbl/d in 2016.

However, “in the longer term, Iran must continue its field development through a combination of ongoing investment by the National [Iranian] Oil Company and new capital from foreign oil companies,” the report said. “Such investment programs will take longer to bring new production to market and will likely result in a gradual increase in production through at least 2020.”

About half of Iran’s production comes from oil fields that are more than 70 years old—including the Ahwaz-Asmari, Marun and Gachsaran fields—according to the International Energy Agency. The NIOC has been using various EOR techniques, including gas injection, to increase oil recovery rates at its mature fields. However, oil sector development also hinges on Iran’s ability to lure capital and technology from foreign companies, according to the report.

The oil sector is keenly watching Iran, which holds the world’s fourth-largest proved crude oil reserves and second-largest natural gas reserves based on data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), after diplomats reached a deal July 14 that restricts Iran’s nuclear ability. In exchange for following through on terms reached in the deal, sanctions that have prevented Iran from fully capitalizing on its hydrocarbon assets will be lifted. The deal still must be approved by individual countries and could face opposition in the U.S.

“Once sanctions are effectively lifted, we expect Iran to increase exports fairly rapidly,” Deloitte said. “Within several months, it should be able to increase exports by several hundred thousand barrels per day. Because the Iranian domestic market is already adequately supplied with crude oil, most of the incremental barrels will flow to the world market.”

The report pointed out that Iran’s oil minister, Bijan Zanganeh, said he expects to initially export 500,000 bbl/d, increasing to up to 1 MMbbl/d in six months.

The dramatic increase is not expected on the production side, and exports will not depend on higher production—at least not initially, according to Deloitte.

“The country has also amassed a stockpile of between 30 and 40 million barrels that could supplement additional production. If Iran released this oil, it would boost exports by almost 100,000 b/d over 12 months or 200,000 b/d over six months,” the report said.

But if Iran wants to attract foreign investors, Deloitte said the country must offer better terms. Deloitte referred to Iran’s buy-back development contracts in the 1990s as an example. The contracts were not in place long enough due to new sanctions being applied. Calling the terms onerous, Deloitte said companies could not book reserves and they were not compensated for cost overruns.

“Competition for capital has increased with the emergence of unconventional plays globally, the rise of new deepwater basins in places such as Brazil and West Africa, offshore plays in East Africa, and the opening of Mexico,” Deloitte said. “Iran must offer attractive, prospective fields, including both new projects and secondary and enhanced recovery opportunities in more mature fields. It also must offer competitive return rates and, crucially, the right to book reserves.”

Velda Addison can be reached at vaddison@hartenergy.com or via Twitter @veldaaddison.