From Aberdeen (IF): Specialists at Aberdeen University say that UK waters may contain more than 270 viable fields which could be brought into production by 2050.

Professor Alex Kemp and Linda Stephen also believe it is conceivable that the industry can be prolonged beyond 2050 at activity levels which, while small by today’s standards, will still contribute to the national economy.

The pair are authors of a new paper on the future potential from the North Sea and have conducted detailed financial modelling of the prospects in the period to 2050.

They say the long-term future of the industry depends on resources, including future discoveries; the costs of exploiting these finds; and policies which can incentivize or retard exploration and developments.

Key results are that production over the period 2014-50 could be in the 14-15bnboe range, depending on the extent of the success in implementing the recommendations of the Wood review regarding production efficiency and access to infrastructure.

Further financial modelling has also been undertaken on the possible effects of tax reliefs following the current review. These could incentivize further field developments resulting in a plausible range of 15-16.5bnboe through 2050.

Kemp and Stephen say new commercially-viable developments triggered over the period to 2050 include not only 25 fields currently being assessed for development, but 147 discovered fields not yet at the detailed planning stage, and 99 further discoveries resulting from new exploration over the period to 2045.

The pair say technological advances can also be expected which will result in rates of oil recovery higher than the present average of around 45%.

‘At the moment there are only a very few active tertiary recovery schemes,’ Kemp said. ‘Others are certainly possible, and, with sympathetic encouragement from government, many more could be implemented...such as low salinity waterflood, polymer flood, miscible gas injection and CO2 injection. Recovery factors in the 60%-70% range would make a substantial extra contribution to aggregate production both before and after 2050.’

Re-opened

Kemp and Stephen say technological advances have already led to decommissioned fields being reopened.

‘It can confidently be predicted that there will be more of these. Some will utilise producing systems with tanker loading for exporting oil and so reliance on existing infrastructure is reduced,’ Prof Kemp said.

‘As an example of what could be achieved with new technology, the decommissioned Miller field could be reopened, perhaps with a CO2 EOR scheme. It will be recalled that the scheme which was aborted some years ago envisaged extra oil production of around 40mmbbls.’

The AU pair say it is not inconceivable that the industry can be prolonged beyond 2050.

Offshore