Oil prices rose Feb. 27 as investors showed record confidence in prices rising further, though gains were capped by the prospect of faster growth in U.S. oil production.
Brent crude oil rose 52 cents to $56.51 a barrel (bbl) by 6:24 a.m. CT (12:24 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) added 42 cents to $54.41.
Investors raised their bets on rising Brent crude oil prices to a new high last week, data from the InterContinental Exchange showed on Feb. 27, breaking the 500,000-lot mark for the first time on record.
Money managers also raised their bullish U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to Feb. 21 to the highest on record, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission said Feb. 24.
Investors now hold 951,312 lots' worth of U.S. and Brent crude futures and options, equivalent to nearly 1 Bbbl of oil and valued at more than $52 billion, based on current Brent and WTI benchmark prices.
"With speculators increasing their bullish bets on U.S. crude to an all-time high, the risk of disappointment and subsequent downward spiral in prices has never been greater," oil brokerage PVM's Stephen Brennock said.
Among the risks is the level of compliance to the deal between OPEC and other producers to bring down oil output by about 1.8 MMbbl/d.
OPEC's record compliance with the deal has surprised the market, and the biggest laggards, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq, have pledged to catch up with their targets.
RELATED: UAE, Iraq Pledge To Catch Up With OPEC Output Target
The International Energy Agency put OPEC's average compliance at a record 90% in January. Based on a Reuters average of production surveys, compliance stands at 88%.
A Reuters survey of OPEC production later this week will show compliance for February.
Looming over the success of the deal is the reaction of U.S. shale producers to rising prices and their ability to increase output.
U.S. drillers added five oil rigs in the week to Feb. 24 to 602, the most since October 2015, energy services firm Baker Hughes Inc. (NYSE: BHI) said on Feb. 24.
Over the past two weeks, the U.S. implied shale oil rig count went up by 15.
The count "is marginally higher than our projected 7 rigs per week for first half 2017," wrote Nordic bank SEB chief commodities analyst Bjarne Schieldrop.
The bank has adjusted its dynamic price forecast for 2019 marginally lower, from $68.30 a barrel to $67.90.
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