Petrobras on Sept. 20 cut its planned investment by 25% in a drive to reduce the largest debt burden among global petroleum firms and revive investor confidence battered by a corruption scandal.
In a securities filing, Petrobras pledged up to $74.1 billion in capital spending for the 2017-2021 period. The total of planned investments, which is Petrobras’ smallest since 2006, compares with the prior 2015-2019 plan at $98.4 billion.
The new spending blueprint also fell short of the $82.7 billion forecast on average, according to eight analysts surveyed by Reuters. Petrobras reaffirmed a $15.1 billion target in asset sales for the 2015-2016 period and a goal to fetch an additional $19.5 billion through divestments and partnerships between 2017 and 2018.
The plan comes as CEO Pedro Parente seeks to cut the company’s $125 billion of debt, amassed after years of state-directed policies that overstretched the company. Still, with oil prices near a decade low, a scandal that laid bare governance flaws and huge losses from years of government-mandated subsidies may complicate those efforts, analysts said.
In a sign that investors endorsed the new plan, preferred shares posted their biggest gain in more than two weeks, jumping 3.5% to 13.50 Brazilian reais (US$14.50).
Speaking to reporters in Rio de Janeiro, Parente vowed to cut costs and sharpen the focus on high-return activities to restore profitability. World economic and oil industry changes justify a leaner, less ambitious spending program, Parente said.
“This plan should start bearing fruit within two years, when we expect to have strong metrics that will allow us to return to the good situation of a few years back,” said Parente, who took office in May.
In line with prioritizing oil and gas production, Petrobras said that it will exit the biofuels sector.
The plan will also show how far Parente, appointed by new President Michel Temer, is prepared to go at Petrobras to reverse the policies of former Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff, removed from office in August for breaking budget laws.
Output
“Lower capital spending makes absolute sense as the company aims at decreasing cash burn to accommodate interest and debt payments and to avoid stretching even further its balance sheet,” Rodolfo de Angele, an analyst with JPMorgan Securities in Sao Paulo, said in a note to clients.
Of the money budgeted for investment, 82% will go to E&P.
Petrobras expects to produce 2.77 MMbbl/d of crude oil in Brazil in 2021. This is about the same amount the last company plan foresaw for 2020.
Total output of domestic and international oil and natural gas equivalent is expected to rise to an average of 3.41 MMbbl/d in 2021, 19% more than the 2.84 MMbbl/ d produced in August.
The business plan is based on a price of Brent crude oil averaging $48/bbl in 2017 rising to $71/bbl in 2021. The plan expects the U.S. dollar to be worth an average of 3.55 reais in 2017, strengthening to 3.71 reais in 2012.
Petrobras’ controlling shareholder, the Brazilian government, is also counting on those fields to kick-start the country’s recession-mired economy. Petrobras is responsible for about 10% of Brazil’s GDP.
—Reuters
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