For the fifth week in a row, the U.S. oil rig count has increased, pushing the overall North American count up by 14 to end the week at 521, according to the Baker Hughes Inc. rig count report for July 8.
Drillers in half of the 14 major basins tracked in the weekly report were operating more rigs this week compared to last week.
The report showed the rig count in the Permian Basin—where Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: OXY), Apache Corp. (NYSE: APA), Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) and Pioneer Natural Resources Co. (NYSE: PXD) are the top acreage holders—rose by four to 158 this week. Other major basins with gains included the Williston, Cana Woodford, Barnett, DJ-Niobrara and Mississippian. All of the other basins were running the same number of rigs as last week.
The U.S. oil rig count jumped by 10 to 351 for the week, compared to 645 a year ago, while the number of U.S. gas rigs dropped by one to 88, compared to 217 a year ago.
In addition, Canada’s oil and gas rig counts saw single-digit increases this week, bringing its total up to 81. That’s five more than last week, but 88 fewer than this time last year.
The steady increases prompted analysts to predict the rig count has bottomed and production will start to edge up early next year.
“We believe the U.S. oil rig count bottomed in late May at around 316 rigs, and expect U.S. oil production to bottom in February 2017 at about 7.735 million barrels per day,” analysts at Swiss bank UBS said this week in a report.
UBS explained the nine-month lag between the rig count bottom and production hitting bottom on the time it takes to put a new well into service after a company decides to drill it—about three months to secure a rig and six to complete the well.
Analysts at Simmons & Co., energy specialists at U.S. investment bank Piper Jaffray, forecast the total U.S. oil and natural rig count would average 483 in 2016, 667 in 2017 and 945 in 2018, vs. 978 in 2015.
The total U.S. oil and gas rig count bottomed at 404 in mid-May, the lowest level since at least 1940.
After slumping from 1,609 rigs in October 2014 amid the biggest oil price rout in a generation, the rig count started to inch up in June as U.S. crude futures hovered around the key $50 per barrel (bbl) level that analysts said would trigger a return to the well pad.
U.S. crude futures this week, however, were on track to fall nearly 8% to around $45/bbl in their worst weekly decline in five-months on global economic worries.
But looking forward, prices were expected to rise, with futures for the balance of the year trading below $47/bbl, and calendar 2017 fetching $50/bbl.
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