HOUSTON—Faltering Chinese oil demand has weighed heavily on analysts’ outlook for global oil trends in 2016 and 2017, and it prompted comments by several speakers at the recent IHS CERAWeek conference.
In 2015, China’s GDP rose 6.9%, the slowest growth rate since the late 1990s, yet its oil demand rose—even surpassing the 2012 growth rate.
China has entered a new normal based on changing economic conditions, the drive to reduce air pollution and the low oil price, a prominent Chinese oil spokesman said. Additionally, the country recently announced its five-year plan, which includes a first ever energy consumption cap. China aims to keep consumption within 5 billion tonnes of standard coal equivalent by 2020, according to a Reuters report.
“China’s new normal creates a lot of new opportunities for Chinese enterprises, but also challenges. We have shifted from growth and volumes to quality and benefits,” Yilin Wang, chairman of the China National Petroleum Co., said via an interpreter at IHS CERAWeek.
Wang predicted that by 2020 Chinese oil and gas demand will reach 12 million barrels per day (MMbbl/d) and 350 billion cubic meters per day, for a compounded annual growth rate of 2.8% and 10%, respectively.
“While China remains a key engine for economic growth, under the new normal it is slowing down,” he said, citing efficiency, budget cuts and its transition from a production-based economy to consumption.
These changes affect China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC), which ranks third in the world among larges oil companies. It lags behind in some respects, he said, such as having higher production costs and a huge headcount of some 1.4 million employees.
Wang said CNPC seeks world partners and is determined to be a world-class, integrated oil company, while at the same time addressing climate change issues.
“We must have an open and fair market environment, and harmony between energy and nature and society,” he said. “CNPC commits to further alliances and becoming a preferred partner of our global peers.”
A recent Raymond James report says there is a lot of misunderstanding about China. “We think fears of collapsing Chinese oil demand remain overblown.”
This misunderstanding led many to forecast sub-par Chinese oil demand growth last year, when China actually posted the largest oil demand growth in five years, the report said. “In fact, the International Energy Agency had to increase its 2015 Chinese oil demand forecast seven times last year.”
Demand growth has shifted, however, from diesel to gasoline. Diesel demand has grown by less than 1% annually since 2012, but gasoline demand has risen on average 10.5% annually since 2012, Raymond James said. China’s burgeoning middle class is driving more, creating an impressive set of statistics, the report said: in fourth-quarter 2015 alone, an average 2.2 million cars per month were purchased.
While heavy duty truck sales have fallen over the past few years, SUV sales have seen an almost 37% annual growth rate.
China continues to fill its strategic petroleum reserve (SPR).
“For the first 11 months of 2015, we calculate that China purchased approximately 430 MMbbl of oil that was either stored in commercial or SPR inventories,” Raymond James said.
Judging by the Chinese SPR’s capacity, which has been increasing, it has only 88 MMbbl left to fill. “In our view the continued filling of the Chinese SPR could add approximately 200,000 bbl/d of additional demand,” Raymond James said.
Leslie Haines can be reached at lhaines@hartenergy.com.
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