Global subsea tree installations and subsea capex are both anticipated to double over the next five years, according to the latest report by analyst Infield Systems.

The company foresees positive prospects for growth in the sector, with the subsea market predicted to expand at a CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) of 6.72% over the 2014-2018 period. The principle driver for the growth is the continued increasing trend towards deepwater oil and gas development, according to Infield, brought about by continued high oil prices, key technological improvements and the need to replace maturing shallow-water basins.

As a result, it adds, subsea developments have steadily increased over the past decade, as companies look to cost-effectively target reservoirs over a much wider area.

Unsurprisingly, Latin America and Africa will maintain their subsea market dominance, together accounting for more than half of total global forecast capex between 2014 and 2018. The primary drivers remain the massive presalt discoveries offshore Brazil in the Santos and Campos basins. These ultra-deepwater fields are mostly operated by Petrobras, with the state oil company remaining the top global subsea investor over the next five years with a 25% share of the global capex figure, says Infield.

Europe, meanwhile, is set to become the largest region in terms of subsea tree installations, despite being forecast to contribute just 11% of the global subsea capex figure. This is due to a lack of capital-intensive deepwater activity in the North West European Continental Shelf sub-region, with the majority of subsea tree installations linked to smaller, more marginal accumulations in shallow waters.

The Asian and Australasian regions represent emerging opportunities for the subsea sector, it added. They will increase their combined market share from 8% in the last five years to 14% over the next five years.

Infield has now released the latest edition (its tenth) of its Global Perspectives Subsea Market Report to 2018.

• The growth theme was continued by an unrelated report from another industry analyst, Douglas-Westwood. It is forecasting global subsea hardware capital expenditure will total US $117 billion between 2014 and 2018. This represents growth of more than 80% compared with the preceding five-year period.

In 2013, subsea tree installations were lower than expected with delays in crucial projects off Brazil and West Africa, it added. However, it is predicting an increase through to 2018, with the major manufacturers all reporting strong backlogs.

Offshore