U.S. crude oil production is expected to rise more than previously expected to 12 million barrels per day (bbl/d) by the fourth quarter of 2019, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said May 8 in a monthly report.
The agency forecast that U.S. crude oil output will rise by 1.14 million bbl/d to 11.86 million bbl/d on average next year, according to the short-term energy outlook. Last month, it expected a 750,00-bbl/d year-over-year increase to 11.44 million bbl/d. Overall, the agency's forecast has increased by more than 1 million bbl/d since January.
The forecast projects that U.S. crude output could reach 12 million bbl/d by the fourth quarter of 2019, nearly 500,000 bbl/d above previous estimates for production in that quarter.
The agency lifted its 2018 production estimate to 10.72 million bbl/d, expecting growth of 1.37 million bbl/d, according to the report.
U.S. crude output has surged since 2010, fueled by output from formations in states including Texas, New Mexico and North Dakota. This year, it has surpassed a previous long-standing output record.
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At the same time, the agency left its projections for U.S. oil demand in 2018 unchanged at 20.38 million bbl/d and slightly lowered its 2019 forecast to 20.64 million bbl/d from 20.70 million bbl/d previously.
The crude market on May 8 was gripped by reports on U.S. President Donald Trump's nuclear plans, so any reaction to the data was muted.
The report also suggested high crude prices will pressure retail gasoline prices upward, to just below $3 a gallon during the summer driving season.
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