In the week since our last edition of What’s Affecting Oil Prices, Brent fell $2.28/bbl last week to average $80.26/bbl. WTI fell $2.70/bbl to average $70.24/bbl. WTI has now returned to its pre-rally level, but Brent is still several dollars off and could continue to decline next week. We expect Brent will fall farther next week as tension between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. lessens. We expect Brent will average $78/bbl next week.
As the November 4 deadline for stopping Iranian shipments looms, markets will be closely watching to see if the State Department approves any waivers. Several Asian consumers including India have reportedly applied for waivers. Another week of large crude builds in the U.S. could cause prices to fall even faster, especially if couple with a build in refined products.
Geopolitical: Neutral
Geopolitics will be a neutral factor in the week ahead. Tensions between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. have lessened, and even at their peak were unable to overcome sentiment from large crude builds in the U.S.
Dollar: Neutral
The dollar will be a neutral factor in the week ahead.
Trader Sentiment: Negative
Trader sentiment will be a negative factor in the week ahead, with net longs for both Brent and WTI backing off sharply as supply fears abate.
Supply: Neutral
Supply will be a neutral factor in the week ahead. As the Nov. 4 deadline for stopping Iranian shipments looms, markets will be closely watching to see if the State Department approves any waivers. Several Asian consumers including India have reportedly applied for waivers.
Demand: Neutral
Demand will be a neutral factor in the week ahead. Another week of large crude builds in the U.S. could cause prices to fall even faster, especially if couple with a build in refined products.
Refining: Negative
Refining will be a negative factor in the week ahead.
Recommended Reading
Santos’ Pikka Phase 1 in Alaska to Deliver First Oil by 2026
2024-04-18 - Australia's Santos expects first oil to flow from the 80,000 bbl/d Pikka Phase 1 project in Alaska by 2026, diversifying Santos' portfolio and reducing geographic concentration risk.
Iraq to Seek Bids for Oil, Gas Contracts April 27
2024-04-18 - Iraq will auction 30 new oil and gas projects in two licensing rounds distributed across the country.
Vår Energi Hits Oil with Ringhorne North
2024-04-17 - Vår Energi’s North Sea discovery de-risks drilling prospects in the area and could be tied back to Balder area infrastructure.
Tethys Oil Releases March Production Results
2024-04-17 - Tethys Oil said the official selling price of its Oman Export Blend oil was $78.75/bbl.
Exxon Mobil Guyana Awards Two Contracts for its Whiptail Project
2024-04-16 - Exxon Mobil Guyana awarded Strohm and TechnipFMC with contracts for its Whiptail Project located offshore in Guyana’s Stabroek Block.