As Brazil’s presidential election nears in October, the possibilities have people pondering about the impact a new regime could have on the oil and gas industry.

A major change could open operatorship in presalt areas to companies other than state-owned Petrobras, reversing a move that was intended to give more local control.

“There is a serious discussion in Brazil right now to change it. I think the government believes it was a big mistake to have Petrobras as a single operator of the presalt areas,” Mayer Brown partner Alexandre Chequer said during the firm’s Global Energy Conference this week. “It has delayed the development of the industry, and also for Petrobras it is not a good option … to develop these massive oil reserves.”

The Libra presalt prospect alone is believed to hold up to an estimated 12 Bbbl of recoverable oil. Despite the huge potential, only one consortium submitted a bid for the presalt auction in 2013, perhaps validating concerns raised beforehand about the operatorship requirement and Petrobras’ ability to handle such a large task.

“It’s too much oil for only one company to develop. It’s not a matter of money. It’s a matter of people, capacity. It’s also a matter of how fast you want to develop it. It’s also a matter of technology,” Chequer said, later pointing out the challenges of presalt developments involving equipment and logistics due to being located about 322 km (200 miles) offshore in the ultradeep water of the South Atlantic Ocean. “The challenges are huge.”

If the country’s president, Dilma Rousseff, is reelected, the future could hold more of the same—bid rounds under the concession regime in 2015 for nonpresalt areas, presalt bid rounds in 2016, a possible relaxing of government control over gas prices and Petrobras maintaining operatorship in all presalt areas, Chequer said.

However, if Rousseff is unseated by one of her main challengers— Aecio Neves of the Brazilian Social Democracy Party or Eduardo Campos of the Brazilian Socialist Party—change could be on the horizon. If either is elected, Chequer predicted based on discussions he’s had that it is likely that bid rounds under the concession regime in the presalt area would occur annually, government control over gas prices would end and operatorship in presalt areas would be open to other companies.

“We believe that they will not move forward with the production-sharing agreement structure so they will push back everything into the concession regime, which is not bad,” Chequer said. He added, “Petrobras has been sustaining itself, but it has been losing money,” mainly because it is subsidizing gas prices in the country.

If polls are any indication of what could happen in October, Rousseff might have some cause for concern. A poll conducted by Datafolha showed she was losing ground in her bid for reelection, falling 38% from 44% in February, Bloomberg reported in April, noting the country’s faster inflation and slower growth. Some Brazilians also are upset about the large amount of money the government is spending in preparation for the World Cup, while funding is needed for public services for health care, infrastructure improvement and education. The news agency also pointed out that debt-laden Petrobras’ shares have fallen 34% since Rousseff took office.

Despite this, Rousseff still had the most support in the poll. Support for Neves was unchanged at 16%, while Campos had 10%.

“The government has respected everything they signed regarding energy. You might not agree with what is going on right now. Personally, I don’t agree. I think it could be better,” Chequer said. “But they have respected the contracts.”

The Libra consortium—comprising Petrobras (40% interest) and partners Shell (20%), Total (20%), China National Offshore Oil Co. Ltd.(10%) and China National Petroleum Corp. (10%) with PPSA—plans to begin production by year-end 2016. Seismic work, an extended well test and exploration wells are part of their approximately $450 million exploration development plan.

The project is just one of many on Petrobras’ plate as part of the company’s approximately $220.6 billion, five-year investment plan that runs through 2017. Of that amount, about $154 billion is marked for E&P.

Contact the author, Velda Addison, at vaddison@hartenergy.com.