Industry proponents are raving about initiatives to automate the drilling process. What is commonly referred to as “black box” automation promises to alleviate many problems in the drilling industry associated with human error. So long roughnecks! But can automation breed its own experience?

In March, the SPE/IADC Drilling Conference was attended by a host of engineers who believe that automation will be the next wave of game-changing drilling technology. It will be interesting to see if OTC follows the same trend.

The 2009 drilling conference marked SPE/IADC’s first collaborative technical session to discuss drilling systems automation, which was preceded by a public discussion moderated by David Reid of National Oilwell Varco.

According to Reid, “drilling automation derives from a value-driven spectrum, which includes mechanization, remote control, semi automation, and eventually automation.”

Another consideration for automation technology is that it must align with industry needs providing solutions that are safe, reliable, efficient, affordable, and productive.

The stated goal of the public discussion at IADC, Reid said, was “to develop a road map for automation technology and to identify key issues that affect its development.”

So it seems, automation is a destination that companies are moving toward.

Manpower is also on that list of “key issues.” Many of those in attendance, as well as several of the panelists, cited “human error” as a major cause of expense in drilling projects worldwide. At the conference, human error was explained as a direct result of inexperience. This offers an argument for automating the drilling rig. Safety was another viable concern; with fewer people on the rig floor, the likelihood of injuries and death decreases.

How will automation look 30 years from now? Surely, by that time, technology will have replaced personnel with programmable, repetitive machines. Operations will be harnessed by remote control to one or maybe two trained professionals who can observe and troubleshoot problems from a distance. This is the so-called “black box” operation.

On the surface, this appears to be a viable solution that in time can save companies the expense of drilling problems created by human error. But at the end of this transformation, who will know how manual operations work? There seems to be a “watch and the watchmaker” scenario building.

If, after several generations, the drilling industry has managed to completely automate the majority of its operations, who will be on hand to repair the automation failures?

The generation gap in the upstream industry isn’t news. Most companies understand that their inexperienced employees are a direct result of the cyclical nature of this business.

Those who know the most about drilling a well are closer to retirement, and those who are most likely to make mistakes have many years ahead of them. What will the generation gap look like when automation experience is the only experience people have?

Redrawing the bottom line for any operation is thrilling for most engineers and executives alike. Showing on paper how an operation can be more efficient with less capital, in this case human capital, is a completely different endeavor from doing it for real.

There is no doubt that automation will supplant much of the personnel that currently populates most drill sites, but to think that it will cure “inexperience” is a bit short sighted.