IEA’s projections of the world’s annual electricity generation for two scenarios: A Reference Scenario (“business as usual”) and an Alternative Policy Scenario considering announced political initiatives and a suggestion as to how the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere can be stabilized at the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s stated target of 450 ppm.

Projections put forward by the International Energy Agency (IEA) indicate fossil fuels will continue to be the main energy source for decades to come even if all of the suggested political incentives to increase renewable energy production are put into effect. It would be unwise, however, to believe that the threat of climate change will not affect the fossil fuel industry.

No one knows the future, but strong political incentives have been put in place to increase the buildup rate of clean energy capacity. In the long run, this will have to be in the way of adding costs to the fossil fuel value chain rather than subsidizing renewables. So even though fossil fuel production will increase, margins could suffer.

The way forward
To understand the mitigation potential of carbon capture and storage (CCS), the IEA suggests that 6 Gt of CO2 could be captured and stored annually by 2050. For comparison, StatoilHydro’s Sleipner project has been safely storing 1 Mt of CO2 per year for over a decade, an annual amount comparable to the emissions from a single small coal power plant. The prospect of replicating thousands of coal power plants with CCS is daunting. However, if CCS is to reach its potential, clear political commitment that leads to concrete action is required now. Governments, research institutions, and industry need to work together to frame conditions, technology, economy, infrastructure, and common acceptance criteria that can lead to large-scale implementation of CCS.

Many governments view CCS as a strategic part of energy policy. Knowing that renewable energy will not be sufficient to secure energy supply, some governments will embrace CCS as a means of gaining acceptance for continued large-scale fossil fuel use, particularly in cases where there are huge fossil fuel reserves representing large export values.

Public, political barriers
In many countries, the industry faces the political risk of not having long-term solutions to reduce emissions. Although framework conditions are not yet defined for CCS, member countries in the European Union (EU) have made good progress within the last few years. Examples include the EU geological storage directive and amendments to existing legislation. This development will contribute to reducing long-term unpredictability when huge investment decisions are made in the near future in lead countries in Europe, North America, and Australia.

In a democratic society, public acceptance is key to efficiently implementing and changing processes. Unfortunately, the fossil fuel industry has not been very successful in establishing public trust. Lack of knowledge and resistance threaten implementation of CCS.

An EU-based research project named Accsept was carried out to gain public acceptance of CCS. Although little work has addressed the interaction between knowledge and public acceptance, research results show that citizens of countries where public debate addresses CCS have a relatively high acceptance for the technology. This suggests that governments should focus more on increasing CCS awareness in society at large and that industry should develop good practices for involving the local population up front when a CCS development project is proposed.

The industry also needs to establish best practices for carrying out CCS projects. This involves qualifying new and more cost-effective capture technology, establishing codes and standards to build CO2 pipelines and qualify CO2 storage sites, and gaining experience in effectively building industrial scale CCS facilities.

The EU has the ambition to realize and partly fund up to 12 industrial scale CCS facilities to be in operation by 2014, each including the whole value chain with CO2 capture, transportation, and storage. To facilitate development the European Commission recently appointed DNV to form an industry network of CCS projects with the purpose of creating, sharing, and disseminating knowledge and experience. Meanwhile, Australia initiated the formation of the Global Carbon Capture and Storage Institute (GCCSI) with the objective of establishing 20 such CCS projects worldwide. There are now demonstration projects at various stages of development. According to the IEA, if these demonstration projects deliver good results, CCS technology could be deployed on a broader scale by 2015.

The science and technology behind CCS are known, but have never been implemented for the purpose of reducing CO2 emissions. To safely employ CCS, the industry needs to develop CCS-specific industry guidelines. Industrial implementation of guidelines is also important so regulatory bodies can be confident that industry can handle CCS projects safely. DNV has taken the initiative to develop such guidelines within CO2 capture, CO2 pipeline transmission, and CO2 storage.

From small- to large-scale capture
Capturing CO2 from small industrial processes is routine, while large-scale capture of CO2 from fossil power plants is new. As is often the case with new technology, timing for investments represents a dilemma.

Costs for capture facilities will most likely decrease with experience and development, while it is likely that reliability and functionality will increase. At the same time, there is a desperate need for first time movers, early deployment, and large-scale piloting of technology to build industrial experience and trust.

The risks in this phase are mainly related to emergence of economically successful technologies that fulfill the expectations of reliability and functionality. DNV will shortly issue a guideline, developed together with industry partners, to qualify new CO2 capture technologies.

Significant investments will have to be made in onshore and offshore pipelines to transport CO2 from source to sink.

Transporting CO2 through a pipeline is generally considered a straightforward procedure.
The industry has considerably less practical experience, however, with concentrated CO2 transportation in large volumes and in a dense, high-pressure phase than it has with natural gas. The risks related to these two gases are different, and the differences need to be addressed to carry out safe pipeline design.

DNV is carrying out a joint industry project (JIP) aimed at assessing the need for additional or revised design criteria and operational requirements for pipelines carrying CO2.

Six feet under
Captured CO2 has to be stored for a very long time to prevent an increase in atmospheric CO2 content, and safe storage for many centuries calls for thorough assessment and analysis of the storage site. Leakage risk can be minimized by setting requirements for the primary geological storage site itself and by ensuring multiple barriers in the way of overburden formations. Monitoring and remediation plans also may be necessary.

DNV is leading a JIP aimed at developing methodologies for initial site selection of geological formations for CO2 storage. The resulting procedure will guide users in limiting and managing uncertainties and risks related to storing CO2 in sub-seabed formations.

The transition to low-carbon power generation requires CCS as a bridging technology to be deployed on a broader scale in the near future. Carbon capture, transport, and geological storage are technically feasible, but industry and government need to ensure a high level of protection for the environment and for human beings. A sound and accepted risk management approach is necessary for obtaining such a high level of protection.