There’s plenty of blame to share around, and Simmons was liberal in his criticism, which implicated the oil and gas industry as well as the collective world’s legislative bodies. The oil and gas industry, Simmons said, has rushed to production when it should have drilled more appraisal wells to better understand its reservoirs.

Too much oil has been left in the ground, and with most of the world’s elephant fields past their peak, there have been precious few discoveries to offset them. Simmons spoke at a luncheon during the recent Offshore Technology Conference.

The twilight’s last gleaming
Simmons presented evidence in the form of decline curves for eight of the most highly touted recent discoveries in the deep Gulf of Mexico. Most profiles looked like silhouettes of the Matterhorn — a dramatic peak followed by a steep decline. He opined that the odds of meeting future demand for oil are critically low.

Referring to his bestselling book Twilight in the Desert, in which he predicted the decline of the giant Middle East complex, Simmons said it was way past time for the world’s leaders to wake up. The recent oil spike to US $147/bbl of oil is nothing — how about $500 or $600?

As if that statement wasn’t sobering enough, Simmons went on to elaborate on the water shortage, only he labeled it a crisis of grand proportions. Quoting Coleridge’s famous “Rime of the Ancient Mariner,” he enumerated some facts under the headline, “Water, water everywhere nor any drop to drink:”

• Although 70% of the earth’s surface is covered with water, only 2.5% of it is fresh, and a large fraction of that is locked up in the polar ice caps;
• 40% of the US fresh water supply is consumed in power generation;
• To refine a gallon of gasoline requires three gallons of water (betcha didn’t know that one!); and
• It will take an investment of $15 trillion to bring the US fresh water infrastructure up to date — and the US is the world’s leader.

A similar condition exists in the US’ oil and gas refinery infrastructure and a third of its 108 operating nuclear power plants, according to Simmons. They’re just plain rusty.

The dawn’s early light
Not wanting to leave his audience wringing their hands or looking for a cliff to jump off, Simmons provided his view of a viable solution — ocean energy.

With 70% surface coverage, the oceans are a huge source of heat energy from their continual absorption of solar heat. That energy can be harnessed. Perhaps of more immediate benefit is sustained wind energy that exists away from the land mass. When you move only a few miles offshore, Simmons said, you get sustained winds that can drive windmills. Early sites just off the beach failed because they were too close to the land (Martha’s Vineyard and Cape Cod were mentioned) and were affected by variable winds. Simmons described a successful trial off the coast of Maine far enough that the mills never stop turning.

He said that power generated from the mills could be used to distill water and generate liquid ammonia (NH3) that can fuel internal combustion engines. Asked about public acceptance to his idea, he said that local citizens and public officials there have coined a new acronym: BIIMBY (Build it in my back yard).

A secret to success is placing the mills far enough apart that they don’t interfere with wind patterns. Simmons said an installation could reasonably produce 1,533 GW. And since the ocean, the sun, and the wind are free, the only cost is the capital cost plus periodic maintenance.

What’s the catch?
There is a catch, of course. Nothing will happen without the government finally getting off its collective rear end and passing a sustainable national energy policy. This seemingly unattainable Holy Grail could have forestalled the crisis condition Simmons now warns is upon us. Governments could accept the finite nature of fossil fuels and provide a workable blueprint for transition into sustainable energy resources while accepting that fossil fuels still have millions of useful applications besides power generation.

Take away power generation, and there is enough oil and gas to sustain the world for a long time — even a longer time if you throw in transportation.

For years Washington has been singing the same song — reduce the US’ dependency on foreign oil. Imagine the nation’s security if it had access to a virtually limitless supply of electrical energy. If Simmons’ dream is only a dream, we’d better be prepared for a rude awakening.