As the dust continues to settle in Brazil following the feeding frenzy that surrounded the country’s first-ever presalt auction of the rights to one of the biggest offshore fields ever discovered, Petrobras already has much on its plate to digest.

Maria das Graças Silva Foster, the company’s president, however, seems unfazed by the many tasks that lie ahead. Consider the fact that her organization is on target to bring to completion a total of nine new major offshore oil and gas production facilities by the end of this year alone, and her confidence is understandable.

It is the first time in the company’s history that it has ever received this many production units in a single year, and Foster told delegates at OTC Brasil in Rio de Janeiro their installed capacity will amount to 1 MMb/d.

Target of 4.2 MMb/d by 2020

These production units are a key part of the operator’s plans to double its current production levels and achieve its ambitious target of 4.2 MMb/d of oil by 2020. That target is backed up by a forecast investment of up to US $237 billion, according to its latest business plan.

Of the units starting up this year, the FPSO vessels Cidade de S?o Paulo, Cidade de Itaja?, and Cidade de Paraty have already come onstream, while others such as the FPSO unit P-63 and the semisubmersibles P-55 and P-58 are in place. The P-61 and P-62 units also were due to arrive at their final locations in December.

Giving Petrobras’ perspective on the many outstanding opportunities – and challenges – in Brazil, Foster discussed the transition that will occur over the course of the next five or six years for the company and the country. “The ‘P’ for production will be more important for us than the ‘E’ for exploration,” she said.

Looking back a short time showed how far the country has come in many regards with respect to its industry capabilities, Foster added. Highlighting the growth of the shipbuilding industry in recent years, she said, “We are very proud of the shipyards in Brazil. Ten years ago a lot of people laughed when we mentioned local content. In addition to the 17 stationary production units that are currently under construction in Brazil, we have 28 rigs and 41 transport ships being built in Brazil. To meet this [production] curve, we have 12 more contracts to do.”

The success of the company’s exploration in the pre-salt has been little short of “spectacular,” Foster continued. Pointing out that all 13 presalt wells drilled up to the end of October had found oil, she added that altogether a total of 144 exploratory wells have been drilled in the presalt – with an astonishing 82% success rate.

“Our exploration success is impressive. If we count offshore and onshore wells, we have a 65% rate, which is far higher than the global average,” she said. She went on to point out that Brazil accounted for 62% of large deepwater discoveries worldwide between 2007 and 2012.

Libra in the spotlight

With much of the global industry’s attention focused on the bidding battle for the rights to explore and eventually develop the Libra field, Foster spent time outlining the state-owned major’s expectations. The company, which is already pumping more than 330,000 b/d of oil from its other presalt assets, believes Libra is one of the most promising accumulations yet.

Petrobras has a 40% stake in the field in the Santos basin and is expecting first oil to be extracted in 2020. “The regulatory framework [production sharing] is clear, objective, and unambiguous,” she said.

Foster also noted that investments in Libra will start to ramp up significantly within the next four years. “In 2017 Libra will start to become a material aspect of our capital expenditure.”

However, by then, the company will already be producing 750,000 b/d more than the current 2.2 MMb/d of oil that are flowing today from its existing fields. “Between 2020 and 2023, we will see Petrobras and our consortium partners ramping up production on Libra,” she added.

Field spend of $180 billion

The task of exploring, appraising, and developing the presalt Libra deposit is huge, with the company and its consortium partners Shell, Total, CNOOC Ltd., and China National Petroleum Corp. facing a total forecast field life investment of up to $180 billion over the period of the agreement.

The consortium has pledged to the Brazilian government a minimum 41.65% of profit oil, after already agreeing to pay a signature bonus of $6.7 billion for the field rights. But there should eventually be profits, especially since at its peak the field is forecast (admittedly at a very early stage in its assessment) to be likely to produce up to 1.4 MMb/d, according to the National Petroleum Agency (ANP). The ANP puts recoverable reserves between 8 Bbbl and 12 Bbbl.

Foster’s experienced Petrobras colleague Jose Miranda Formigli, the company’s E&P director, also was upbeat both on the quality of the consortium partners and the potential of the field itself. “We believe that the technical expertise that they will bring for subsurface issues will be extremely important for the Libra development. All these companies have quite a lot of experience in implementing megaprojects,” he said at OTC Brasil.

“But we will need to balance the exploration and appraisal period with the time for first oil, and to reach that, we have to have the right information management – which means we have to share the right information within the consortium.”

Up to 15 production systems

The consortium, which will be led by Petrobras, should in the near future outline specific targets and plans for Libra, Formigli said. The development is likely to be produced through between 10 and 15 separate but largely replicant floating production systems in a phased or “module” approach, as Petrobras terms it. This will be similar to the operator’s strategy for the development of its giant Lula field, meaning offshore contractors are likely to be approached before year-end 2014 regarding the various development aspects.

At this stage, however, Petrobras will say only that recoverable oil volume estimates, costs, investments, and a schedule for the production systems “will be progressively released in a timely manner, as the minimum exploration program is developed.”

The Libra block covers 1,548 sq km (598 sq miles) and was discovered by well 2-ANP-0002ARJS in 2010, in water depths of around 2,000 m (6,500 ft).

Petrobras has a 40% stake in the field, with its partners being Shell (20%), Total (20%), CNPC (10%), and CNOOC (10%). The contract for the block will be under a 35-year production-sharing framework in accordance with law No. 12,351, which covers the authorization of the E&P of oil and gas in the presalt and other strategic areas.

The minimum exploratory program to be carried out over an initial four-year period will include 3-D seismic for the whole block, two exploration wells, and one extended well test. For the exploration phase the minimum percentage of overall local content is 37%, while in the development stage it will rise to 55% for systems with first oil until 2021 and 59% for those after 2022.

Government take of 80%

Although plenty still remains to be clarified – there have only been two wells drilled in the license area so far – few doubt it will eventually deliver substantial returns for all those involved.

Not least among them will be the government, which will have a total predicted eventual take from the field, including taxes, of around 80% (one of the highest rates in the world), according to the ANP’s director general, Magda Chambriard. During OTC Brasil, she said, “We couldn’t have attained a scenario that would be more successful than this one.”