The number of offshore developments being launched around the world between now and 2020 is rising inexorably higher. Whether in shallow or deep waters, the forecasts all reflect the same positive outlook.

Having recently spent time gathering my thoughts for a forecast of offshore trends likely to emerge in 2013 and garnering those of industry professionals much more knowledgeable than I, the lasting impression was that looking one year ahead in this business is like thinking about what you’re going to eat for supper tonight.

The sheer length of time it takes to shift a sizeable project from initial exploration success to producing field is, of course, a moveable feast. But unless they are exceptionally straightforward, very few get done in less than five years from discovery well to first oil.

So while my initial focus was on the short-term year-out picture, the wealth of information about longer term forecast activity seemed too good to waste.

For example, between 2011 and 2020 there are a predicted 1,630 offshore surface facilities planned for installation worldwide. That is 1,292 fixed platforms, 164 FPSOs, 17 semisubmersibles, 14 spars, 14 floating storage and offloading units (FSOs), 11 tension-leg platforms (TLPs), and 118 others (where the concept is unknown or still in the pre-FEED stage).

According to information from PFC Energy, presented at Johnson Rice & Company’s recent energy conference, there are some big numbers to note out there. The number of fixed platforms forecasted for installation in the US Gulf of Mexico up to 2020 is 580, with 284 in the Asia Pacific region and 141 in the Middle East.

Global offshore fixed and floating installations

For FPSOs it is sub-Saharan Africa that dominates, with 57 units penciled in between 2011 and 2020. The Asia Pacific region will have 37, and Brazil will have 36. There are also 118 floating production candidates globally where the final concept has not yet been selected, but more than half are expected to be FPSOs.

It is also worth pointing out that the total global figure above of 1,630 does not take into account subsea-only projects.

The point is that there is a solid queue of visible projects stretching out into the next decade, with little expected to delay their development. No wonder there is now an increasing number of contractors repositioning themselves to catch a slice of this market.

Joint ventures like those between Samsung and Amec – where Amec will carry out FEED and detailed design for Samsung’s future fixed and floating platforms, FPSOs, and subsea pipeline projects – illustrate that the industry’s contractors are acutely aware of the need to widen their global client services.

Technip and Heerema’s five-year alliance for the subsea market is another. “Ultra-deepwater projects are expected to be the fastest growing part of the subsea market over the next several years. For example, ultra-deepwater infield pipelines are forecasted to grow at a yearly pace of more than 15% between 2012 and 2017,” the companies said jointly in their press announcement.

Such linkups, with others in the pipeline, are clear evidence that the offshore industry is in a long-term upward cycle, with 2020 increasingly looking like just the start of the next chapter in a remarkable growth story.