Noble Energy is lining up a fleet of ultra-deepwater gas developments in the eastern Mediterranean Sea within the next five years, including both a gas FPSO and two FLNG vessels, as it looks to meet increasing domestic and export demand.

The US explorer is forecasting net natural gas sales to increase to 575 MMcf/d in 2018, before then nearly doubling to 1.1 Bcf/d in 2023, and it plans to meet this demand by exploiting and expanding both its producing Tamar field, as well as its giant Leviathan and Cyprus-A discoveries. Noble’s success in the region is hard to ignore, having discovered gross resources of approximately 40 Tcf of gas.

It is on the Leviathan field, where the reserves are currently put at 19 Tcf with multiple phases of development being progressed towards sanction, that contractors are particular focused. Initial production is pencilled in for 2017, with both a Floating Production, Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessel and a Floating Liquefied Natural Gas (FLNG) vessel planned for installation.

At this stage it is not yet clear which one will be tendered, built and installed first. According to a presentation by the company’s senior vice president for the eastern Mediterranean, Keith Elliott, Leviathan will serve both Israel’s domestic market as well as export markets, with 800 MMcf/d needed to meet that initial phase of supply by the second half of 2017. At present that will be followed first by an FLNG solution, then a 1.6 Bcf/d gas FPSO to supply further predicted growth in the domestic market and the expanding regional market.

However, Elliott said that the sequencing of these phases would be driven by the market, and that if contracts for regional supply accelerated to a sufficient scale, the gas FPSO could move ahead of the FLNG element on Leviathan.

Noble is currently targeting 5 Tcf of gas for the domestic and regional markets, with a gross investment put at US $2.9 billion.

For the FLNG phase, a further 500-800 MMcf/d (3.2-4.8 MMtpa) is estimated, with 5 Tcf for export. This is forecast to entail an upstream gross investment of $1 billion, and assumes a third-party FLNG tolling arrangement.

For the 1.6 Bcf/d gas FPSO it is predicting a $4.6 billion gross investment to supply 9 Tcf of gas to the expanding domestic and regional markets.

Elliott added that the Leviathan FLNG pre-FEED studies had confirmed the technical and commercial viability of the concept, and that designs had been developed for both 3.25 MMtpa and 4.8 MMtpa capacity units.

“The FEED tendering and evaluation process is progressing with strong market interest,” he added.

However Leviathan is not the only FLNG project it is examining, said Elliott, as its Cyprus-A discovery “is a candidate for FLNG now. We see multiple opportunities for Cypriot gas to be monetized. Our exploration programs are a key part of that,” he said.

Noble has already studied a ‘world-class’ onshore LNG facility at Vasilikos for domestic supplies to Cyprus, he said, although it still requires additional discovered resources, with individual trains sized at 4-7 MMtpa. For the FLNG option, he said the discovered resources already support a 4 MMtpa development, with a target of 3-4 years from a Final Investment Decision to first gas.

Back on Noble’s Tamar field, Elliott said that the company had already given internal sanction for the 700 Bcf Tamar SW discovery to be developed via an 8-mile subsea tieback to the existing production platform, with first production during 2015. The field has a 250 MMcf/d potential per well, he added, which supports the company’s expansion plans.

At Tamar, the onshore compression project at the Ashdod receiving terminal is progressing, with plans to enhance deliverability to 1.2 Bcf/d gross by mid-2015. Additional expansion to 1.5 Bcf/d is planned for 2016.

Elliott also flagged up the company’s acreage offshore Israel and Cyprus as having greater potential than previously thought, in particular for oil, with up to 3 Bbbl of potential gross oil reserves in the deep Mesozoic play, as well as 4 Tcf of gas for Cyprus alone. Wells are expected to be drilled in late 2014 or early 2015 on these prospects. “The Levant basin continues to be a great zip code for explorers,” he commented.

Offshore