Capital-intensive ultra-deepwater developments are expected to capture nearly half of forecast global subsea Capital Expenditures and nearly a quarter of tree installations between 2013 and 2017, according to analyst Infield Systems.

The Capex (48%) and tree installation (23%) figures are both up on the comparative numbers of 37% and 15% respectively for the 2008-2012 period. “The subsea industry there- fore shows very positive prospects for growth in the next five years,” according to Infield in its latest edition of its ‘Global Perspectives Subsea Market Report To 2017’.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, Latin America and West Africa account for more than half of subsea Capex expected between 2013 and 2017. This is driven by the large deep and ultra-deepwater discoveries off Brazil, particularly in the pre-salt basins, and off Angola and the Gulf of Guinea.

As an operator, Petrobras dominates the subsea sector and is expected to account for 24% of global subsea Capex in the next five years as it implements projects such as Papa Terra, Lula and Franco, said Infield. However, the fast pace of development anticipated by the Brazilian government depends on Petrobras’ ability to overcome capacity constraints and keep costs under control, it added.

The highest investment levels and number of installations of subsea trees in Africa are expected to occur in 2017, driven by developments such as the Kaombo and Cabaca fields in Angola, and the Bonga Southwest and Nsiko projects off Nigeria. However, Nigeria has yet to secure investor confidence by adopting stable fiscal policies, which would enable IOCs and independents to more readily take final investment decisions. Simultaneously, emerging countries such as Ghana, Congo-Brazzaville and Equatorial Guinea are expected to increase their presence in the subsea sector.

As mature regions, Europe and North America still present significant opportunities for the subsea sector, Infield continued. Norway and the UK are characterised by high drilling activity on producing fields and the completion of subsea tiebacks on smaller, remote accumulations mostly in shallow waters.

In the North Sea, this is linked to efforts to reverse declining oil and gas production. Despite a decrease in global Capex market share due to less capital intensive shallow water activity relative to other regions, Europe is expected to attract an increasing share of subsea tree installations.

In the United States the shift from shallow water developments, where production is in decline, towards large discoveries further offshore is well underway. The deepwater GoM is expected to host many new floating platform developments, combined with the tieback of subsea satellite fields later on in the fore- cast period.

Asia, Australasia and the Middle East also present emerging opportunities for the subsea market. According to Infield these regions will increase their market share from 8% in the last five years to 15% in the next five years. Operations in Asia are increasingly moving E&P activity into deeper waters in a bid to boost and sometimes reverse declining production. As a result Malaysia, Indonesia, India and China are becoming major subsea industry hot spots, attracting a range of operators.

Australasia’s subsea sector is driven by its fast-growing LNG export industry, which is racing to meet rising demand for gas in emerging Asian economies. Fields such as Chevron’s Gorgon are being tied back to large onshore LNG producing facilities.

New large gas discoveries in the last five years in the eastern Mediterranean are also driving subsea investments in the Middle East region. The startup of Noble Energy’s deepwater Tamar field in April offshore Israel is expected to just be the start of increased subsea activity in the Levant Basin.

More information on Infield’s ninth edition is available at www.infield.com