The whole developed world seems worried about fossil fuels, their impact on the environment and the availability of oil to move the world’s cars, trucks, buses, tractors and aircraft. Most of the developing world is more worried about getting enough energy to improve its standard of living.

Newspaper pages and television infocasts multiply the dangers and over-hype the solutions — ethanol, hydrogen, electrical power from the sun, wind power — as they ask people to believe the answers are simple.

People in the oil and gas industry know that no simple answers exist. They know that, if the world had a better solution to power civilization, the market would adopt it. Now, with high oil prices, increasing environmental restrictions and scare stories about peak oil, people are looking at emerging alternatives. The May 2007 issue of Popular Science magazine took a particularly enlightening look and saw that, realistically, oil will remain king of the fuel tank but technology could shave gasoline’s market share to 35% of the transportation market in 20 years in the United States.

The magazine staff took a look at the alternatives, the pros, the cons and estimated market share in 2027.

For example, electricity was the top contender, either for standalone power or in hybrids like the Toyota Prius. Over 15,000 miles (24,135 km), it costs US $650 to fuel a Prius,
compared with $1,300 for a Toyota Camry getting 27 miles per gallon (mpg).

Hybrids and electrics offer cleaner energy and high mileage, but they aren’t powerful enough to meet the desires of many motorists. Plug-in electric cars probably won’t arrive for another 4 years and lithium-ion batteries have to get stronger, smaller and cheaper to make them competitive. Still electricity’s donation to the transportation mix could reach 30% by 2027, according to the magazine editors.

Natural gas is another alternative to gasoline. It’s even less polluting than hybrids. The Honda Civic GX gets the equivalent of 28 mpg in the city and 39 mpg on the highway, compared with 30 and 40 mpg for a gasoline equivalent. Natural gas costs about $1.30 per gallon equivalent, but fuel stations are few and far between and a home compression station costs about $4,500 installed. lt has a big acceptance hurdle and probably won’t capture more than 3% of the market in 2027.

Check out ethanol. It’s renewable, but it’s energy intensive and doesn’t make sense with corn as a source. Cellulose sources can make it economic, but it still offers only a 10% to 15% improvement in greenhouse gas emissions, and it gets a third worse mileage than gasoline. In short, it could capture about 6% of the market in 20 years but as an additive to E85 gasoline.

Diesel is an alternative to gasoline. It still comes from oil, it gets better mileage and it has infrastructure. The Mercedes E320 Bluetec diesel gets 40% better mileage than its gasoline equivalent. Diesels also emit about a third less carbon dioxide. Mercedes charges a $1,000 premium for its diesel model. Those advantages could give diesel a 20% market share in 2 decades.

Biodiesel works in Europe as a 20% blend with traditional diesel. It’s clean and produces high energy levels (about 20% less than traditional diesel). According to the magazine staff, it could reach a 4% market share as a blend in the United States but only if regular diesel catches on.

Much of the transportation fuel hype has centered on hydrogen with its promise of zero emissions while burning. That doesn’t count emissions from the production of the natural gas feedstock.

Honda, Ford, BMW, General Motors and Chrysler all are testing hydrogen power. If technology keeps progressing, hydrogen could be produced for $3 to $4 per kilogram (an approximate equivalent of a gallon of gasoline), but it would deliver twice the mileage for an equivalent cost of $1.50 to $2 per gallon.

Among drawbacks, it would take a tremendous investment by the auto industry to build hydrogen powered engines and another huge investment by the oil industry to provide the infrastructure to deliver hydrogen through the country.

At the current rate of technological progress, faster development of other high-mileage alternatives probably will keep hydrogen power in the also-ran category with a maximum market penetration of 2%, according to the magazine.

Even gasoline power offers alternatives to the 15-mile-per-gallon big-engine sport-utility vehicle. More than 770,000 French Smart vehicles have been sold in 36 countries. The Smart won’t pop a wheelie with its three-cylinder, 61-hp engine, but it will seat two people, break highway speed limits, nosedive headfirst into curbside parking and — in Popular Science tests — get between 33 and 48 miles (53 and 77 km) to a gallon of gasoline.

On the other side of the equation, an electric car may not be ready for prime time, but J.B. Straubel produces the Tesla roadster, based on a Lotus Elise chassis, for $100,000. The first 100 already are pre-sold. According to the magazine, it uses the equivalent 6,831 laptop computer batteries weighing 1,000 pounds. It will travel 250 miles (402 km) between charges and reach 60 miles (96 km) an hour from a standing start in less than 4 seconds. A full charge takes about 3 1/2 hours.

Right now, there’s a big gap between the affordable and the possible. As long as that gap exists, petroleum will hold the top spot in the transportation fuel chain.