The roiling events in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region are rapidly transforming the global scene, and negative spins have certainly been placed on the happenings. Nonetheless, a recent conference held in Cambridge, Mass., left attendees with a positive outlook on the changes.

The conference, titled Revolution and Reform: The Historic Transformation in the Middle East, was organized by the Dubai Initiative and was held at the Belfer Center, Harvard Kennedy School. It examined the events that are unfolding in the MENA region beginning with Tunisia, followed by Egypt, Bahrain, and Libya. Themes ranged from youth movements, political transformation, foreign policy, the effect on energy and urbanization.

Speakers provided many new insights into the region, such as the driving forces behind the revolutions, differences between countries, lessons learned from past revolutions (especially Iran) and foreign policies of western countries, in particular the U.S. In general, most experts were quite optimistic about the region and see the uprisings as positive. Some even consider it to be an “Arab Spring.” Experts spoke about the Muslim Brotherhood and similar groups in other countries, and agreed that these groups are not likely to win huge majorities in elections. Ensuring the free exchange of ideas will go a long way towards preventing ultra-conservative religious groups gaining control.

Panelists noted that the road the democracy, in whatever form it takes, will be long and difficult. There will be setbacks and push back from those who stand to lose power; a large amount of learning will be necessary and mistakes will be made. In general, the West should not intervene, though the West can certainly be more openly supportive of the movements instead of taking the position that security can only be ensured by authoritarian regimes. The military intervention in Libya is seen as necessary by some and the beginning of another quagmire by others. Financial and capacity-building help could be beneficial, though it is doubtful that much of this will be available as long as developed countries are facing revenue shortfalls.

An energy panel was primarily focused on the role of energy in economic development in the region, and changes in the geopolitical landscape as it relates to energy supplies. Libya’s oil production, which was about 1.5 million barrels per day before the revolution, may be offline or greatly diminished for several years. This crude is light and sweet and most of it went to Europe. OPEC, primarily Saudi Arabia, has been able to make up the shortfall using spare capacity. Most of the spare capacity is medium and sour grade crudes. Saudi Arabia has been producing a blend of its ultra-light Shaybah crude and medium heavy crude that resembles Libyan crude for export to Europe. Libya also exports natural gas to Europe, through a pipeline, and also exports small volumes of LNG.

Egypt is not an oil exporter, but it does export about 1.8 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas, including LNG to Spain and pipeline gas to Israel. Egyptian oil and gas production has so far not been impacted by the crisis. In the short term there may be pressure to stop exports to Israel or to renegotiate the terms to get a higher price.

Algeria is a major oil and natural gas exporter that has a recent history of civil unrest. The Algerian expert at the conference did not think another revolution is imminent, because in the early 1990s, civil unrest that occurred after the Islamists were elected and then removed by the previous government led to several years of terrorism. In her opinion, the Algerian people do not want to go through that again.

The catastrophic black swan event for the world’s energy markets would occur if widespread unrest were to take root in Saudi Arabia and disrupt oil supplies. This is unlikely given the relative passivity of the Saudi people, and that their recent urges to protest were muted by payout from the government. The importance of Saudi Arabia in stabilizing oil markets is very clear: about 80% of the Libyan oil shortfall has been covered by Saudi Arabia, with the rest from Qatar, the UAE and Kuwait.

The primary effect of the civil unrest on oil and gas production is that many of these countries will have to start paying more attention to the desires of the people, including how much energy is exported and which countries are receiving those exports. Key drivers of unrest have been poor economic conditions, lack of jobs and lack of hope. There may be increased pressure to use additional energy resources to bolster domestic economies. However, these countries will also need revenue from oil and gas exports, which will balance some of the demands to keep energy at home.

The bottom line is that the ultimate impacts of the MENA region revolutions cannot be predicted, but the events can be observed through a better lens if we understand the region and the factors that are driving the revolutions.