During the week of Oct. 31, U.S. oil drillers increased rigs for a 20th week in the last 23, as energy firms follow through on plans, made nine months ago, to add rigs when crude was still trading above the key $50 per barrel (bbl) level analysts said should lead to more drilling. Drillers added nine oil rigs in the week to Nov. 4, bringing the total count up to 450, the most since February, but still below the 572 rigs seen one year ago, Baker Hughes Inc. said on Nov. 4.
Since crude topped $50/bbl in May, June and October, drillers have added 134 oil rigs, the biggest recovery in over two years since prices collapsed due to a global oil glut. About two-thirds of the rigs added since May--81 rigs--were in the Permian Basin, bringing the total there up to 218, the most since November 2015.
The Baker Hughes oil rig count plunged from a record 1,609 in October 2014 to a six-year low of 316 in May as U.S. crude collapsed from over $107/bbl in June 2014 to near $26/bbl in February 2016.
U.S. crude futures were trading at about $44/bbl on Nov. 4, on track to fall for a second week in a row on doubts OPEC members would cut production. The loss of about 10% so far this week is biggest decline since January. But with oil prices still expected to rise in 2017 and 2018 with a projected tightening of the supply-demand balance, analysts forecast that E&Ps will follow through on plans to boost spending on new drilling in coming years.
Futures were trading near $47/bbl for calendar 2017 and near $50/bbl 2018. Analysts at Cowen & Co said in a note during the week of Oct. 31 that its capex tracking showed 12 E&Ps, including WPX Energy Inc. (NYSE: WPX) and Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK), planned to increase spending by an average of 36% in 2017 over 2016.
Cowen said that for the 65 E&Ps it tracks, the forecast 2017 increase followed an estimated 47% decline in 2016 spending below 2015 levels.
Analysts at Simmons & Co., energy specialists at Piper Jaffray, this week forecast the total oil and natural gas rig count would average 502 in 2016, 677 in 2017 and 887 in 2018. Most wells produce both oil and gas. That compares with an average of 978 oil and gas rigs active in 2015, according to Baker Hughes data.
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