Saudi Arabia’s strategy of sacrificing revenue to maintain market share succeeded for the first six months of 2015, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported.
From January through June, the Saudis’ exports to seven major trading partners in the region averaged about 4.4 million barrels per day (bbl/d), more than half of the country’s total crude oil exports. Market share held steady at 16% in China, 33% in Japan and 19% in Thailand. Share slipped to 20% from 21% in India, and to 33% from 34% in South Korea. The only sharp decline was to 18% from 26% in Singapore. Share rose a bit in the Taiwan market, to 33% from 32%.
Overall market share in the region dipped to 23.2% from 23.9% in the same period in 2014, a difference of about 700,000 bbl/d.
The strategy has not been effective in the North American market, however, where U.S. producers were able to increase production in unconventional plays with fewer rigs in the first half of the year.
“E&P companies in the U.S. have been forced to be leaner and meaner in terms of their operating efficiency,” Regina Mayor, KPMG LLP’s Houston-based national sector leader for its energy and natural resources practice, told energy journalists at a recent briefing. “I don’t know that the Saudis were necessarily considering that in play.”
Long-term trends, however, will likely cut into the Saudis’ global crude market share. The EIA cited increasing competition from other crude oil-exporting countries, as well as Saudi Arabia’s shift in its own domestic energy market. Russia has expanded its crude exports to China and Japan and for a time exceeded the Saudi share of the Chinese market earlier this year. The potential for increased volumes of Iranian crude on the global market, as a result of the lifting of sanctions, could cut into the Saudi market share as well.
Saudi Arabia has added 800,000 bbl/d of refining capacity in the last two years with the opening of two facilities. Its capacity now stands at 2.9 million bbl/d, part of a strategy to reduce dependence on imports of petroleum products.
Assuming that the Saudis continue to increase refinery input, the amount of oil available for export could decline, the EIA speculates, reducing market share in Asia and other parts of the world. However, Saudi Arabia could be positioned to gain share in the distillate, jet fuel and gasoline markets.
Joseph Markman can be reached at jmarkman@hartenergy.com.
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