As South Sudan nears the fourth anniversary of its independence July 9, the country still has a fledging oil industry and is enduring violence, hunger and a battered economy despite the spoils of its breakaway from Sudan.

In July 2011, the new country took 75% of Sudan’s oil production when it separated from its northern neighbor. But South Sudan’s seemingly ceaseless conflict has stifled the economy and may have hobbled production for years. Foreign investment has also backed away from the turbulent country

Along with the human toll, the country’s oil industry is reeling.

“Damage to infrastructure will set the country back at least seven years, with production not expected to return to 2013 levels, of approximately 240,000 bbl/d, until 2020,” Jonathan Markham, an upstream oil and gas analyst for GlobalData, said in a statement.

South Sudan is the world’s most oil-dependent country, with crude accounting for nearly all of its exports and about 60% of its GDP, according to the World Bank.

South Sudan’s oil wealth could provide the basis for future progress if used effectively, the international financial institution said.

But a civil war that has left thousands of people dead, displaced or starving.. By June, 60,000 civilians had fled the country and a third of the country’s population of 11 million people did not have sufficient food, according to the United Nations.

Infighting has continued and limited production along with naturally declining fields has lowered oil production.

The GlobalData energy consultancy reported that prior to the start of South Sudan’s conflict in 2013 oil production was about 240,000 bbl/d. It fell to about 165,000 bbl/d by the end of 2014.

South Sudan is believed to have more than 3.5 billion barrels (Bbbl) of proved oil reserves, mostly in the Muglad and Melut basins, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data show. Combined, Sudan and South Sudan’s oil production was nearly 490,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2010. South Sudan gained independence from Sudan only to face its own civil strife as a political power struggle between the president and an ousted deputy escalated to violence in 2013. The two are from different communities.

Fighting in the Texas-sized country apparantly hasn’t improved in recent months with news that rebels, clashing with the army, caused the temporary evacuation in May of the Paloch fields in Upper Nile state.

“Neither government nor rebel forces are in full control of the locations in key oil regions. Ineffective ceasefire agreements and declining oil exports mean operations in South Sudan will continue to be affected in the short to medium term,” Markham said.

Add to this today’s lower, but rebounding, oil prices.

Based on oil prices in the $60-$65/bbl range, GlobalData said that South Sudan is bringing in about $100 million in monthly profit—about 90% of the government’s income.

However, continued conflict will mean less production and less revenue.

Citing Western officials, The New York Times reported that the South Sudanese government almost ran out of money in May. Its lifesaver, not confirmed or denied by South Sudanese government officials, was “printing currency at a seemingly unsustainable rate” and a loan, possibly between $250 million to $500 million, from a Middle Eastern nation.

Infrastructure inadequacies, specifically crude oil export pipelines, add to South Sudan’s predicament. The country pays South Sudan pays between $9.10 and $11 per barrel to use Sudan’s facilities in addition to the $15/bbl it pay as compensation for Sudan’s lost oil revenue following independence, Markham said.

“The country currently has no other export routes if the existing pipelines are cut off. Without alternative routes, South Sudan will remain vulnerable to shutdown threats and unfavorable transportation contracts,” he said.

If the political struggle among the South Sudanese improves along with commodity prices, opportunities exist to grow the country’s oil and gas sector. In addition to large oil reserves, the region has proved gas reserves of about 3 trillion cubic feet, but there has been limited development as gas from oil fields is flared or reinjected for the most part.

“Companies are not willing to invest until the political and security situation in South Sudan improves,” Markham said.

Currently the country’s oil sector is dominated by national oil companies from Asia with China National Petroleum Corp., India’s Oil and Natural Gas Corp. and Malaysia’s Petronas holding the biggest shares in the leading consortia that operates oil fields and pipelines, the EIA said.

Contact the author, Velda Addison, at vaddison@hartenergy.com.